================================================================ 本文档落款 2026-09-29 之前,记载转型前研究;自 2026-09-29 起公司主线唯一为 N=1(运营 Miao 的人生),AI 代采购/AI Data Go 产品线已撤销。 ================================================================ ================================================================ 口径变更声明 / Positioning Update Notice (2026-09-29) ================================================================ 本文件记录形成时的公司口径。2026-09-29 董事会决议(N=1 pivot, D368)撤销"AI 代采购"/"AI Data Go"产品线:主线业务只剩 N=1 (创始人个人 AI 操作系统,只服务苗家辉本人);vertciti 不再 提供 AI 采购代办/对外代采购服务。本文件正文不追溯修改, 请以官网当前页面为准。 This file records the company's positioning at the time of writing. Per the 2026-09-29 board resolution (N=1 pivot, D368), the "AI procurement concierge / AI Data Go" product line is retired: the only mainline is N=1 (the founder's personal AI OS, serving Jiahui Miao only); vertciti no longer offers procurement concierge services. The body below is not retroactively edited. Refer to the live site for current positioning. ================================================================ ================================================================ AI Agent Demand-Side Reality (2026) AI Agent 需求侧现实(2026) ---------------------------------------------------------------- vertciti Data Room · Public Document Date: 2026-09-26 (data as of 2026-09-25) | Version: v1 Sources: vertciti agent-commerce peer benchmark (2026-09-25); Olas Mech Marketplace supplementary note (2026-09-24); demand-side reality research (2026-09-24). All figures are from public sources; see source notes inline. Classification: Public — contains no confidential information. ================================================================ ---------------------------------------------------------------- ENGLISH ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1. WHAT AI AGENTS ACTUALLY BUY: THREE DEMAND TYPES Peer research (Sept 2026) finds AI-buyer demand falls into three types. All three exist today, but with very different maturity: Type 1 — Capabilities to upgrade itself (models, skills, tools, compute, data). Evidence: MCP has become the de-facto agent-to-tool standard: ~9,652 servers in the official registry (2026-05), SDK downloads ~97M/month (2026-03), 78% of enterprise AI teams run at least one MCP-powered agent in production (2026-04 survey). Honest discount: an independent audit found serious registry quality problems (dead links, archived repos, missing auth metadata). "10,000 servers" does NOT equal "10,000 usable, trustworthy, payable capabilities." Type 2 — Collaboration with other AIs (hire / partner). Evidence: Coral Protocol (rent agents into shared threaded sessions, usage-based revenue split); Payman (agent posts a task, human or agent delivers, two-layer verification before instant payment — the most complete "hiring" template observed); Salesforce AgentExchange (composable skills/actions/topics). Type 3 — Goods, digital or physical, via agent procurement. Evidence: Stripe ACP driving ChatGPT Instant Checkout (Etsy + ~1M Shopify merchants); Skyfire + Visa demo (agent comparing prices and ordering headphones on Bose.com); Google AP2 (Intent/Cart/Payment signed-mandate purchase authorization). 2. THE ONLY LIVE AGENT-TO-AGENT MARKET AT SCALE: OLAS MECH Olas Mech Marketplace (live since 2025-02-27, Gnosis Chain): agents hire other agents ("Mechs") for tasks, no human involved. Scale (third-party chain analysis, 2026-06): - ~2,103,560 cumulative on-chain requests; 100 registered Mechs - Total volume only ~$104,000; ~$0.05 per request (median lower) Reading: the agent-to-agent market is REAL and running — but it is micro-task scale today, with tiny dollar volume. A platform cannot yet be sustained on pure agent micro-tasks alone. 3. THE DEMAND-SIDE TRUST WALL Consumers do not yet let AI spend for them: - Exploding Topics (2026): the modal amount consumers authorize AI to spend autonomously is $0; 31% allow no autonomous spending at all. - ACI / YouGov (2,000+ UK adults, 2026-06): only 19% trust AI for rule-based everyday purchases; 60% would permanently disable it after a single mistake; only 7% allow purchases with no approval. Industry consensus quote: "Find it for me, compare prices, bundle it up for my approval — I press the button." (Fintech Takes) 4. VOLUME WITHOUT VALUE: THE x402 HONESTY CHECK - Coinbase claims ~165M transactions / ~$50M volume (2026-04). - Independent audit of the x402 directory (2026-08): only 508 genuinely independent services (not 14,535 claimed resources); ~$20,700 of real distributed volume over 30 days; ~$0.07 average settlement. - TRM Labs (2026-09): of $52.7M total x402 volume, only 0.6%–7.5% is confirmably AI-agent-related. Conclusion: real agent-paid transactions exist, but the pattern is "large tx counts, tiny amounts, heavy wash volume, scarce production-grade flow." Evidence for a scaled agent-to-agent paid market is INSUFFICIENT. 5. BOTTOM LINE "Humans pay, agents run errands." Agent demand for external capabilities is real but thin: the mainstream path is developers pre-provisioning API keys and subscriptions. Autonomous agent spending lacks supporting evidence on the demand side (authorized spend mode = $0), the supply side (micro-task dollar volumes), and the regulatory side (KYC / liability vacuum). Strategic implication: start with high-value human-buyer procurement concierge (data / APIs / compute), not with the micro-task market. Demand is real — but the realistic cold start is human. ---------------------------------------------------------------- 中文 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 一、AI 买家实际买什么:三类需求 2026 年 9 月同业研究发现,AI 买方需求分三类,三类都存在, 但成熟度差异很大: 第一类——买能力升级自己(模型、技能、工具、算力、数据)。 证据:MCP 已成为事实上的 agent-to-tool 标准:官方注册表约 9,652 个 server(2026-05),SDK 月下载约 9,700 万(2026-03), 78% 的企业 AI 团队至少有一个 MCP 驱动的 agent 在生产环境 (2026-04 调研)。 诚实折扣:独立审计发现注册表质量问题严重(死链、归档仓库、 缺鉴权元数据)。"一万个 server"不等于"一万个可用、可信、 可付费的能力"。 第二类——买与其他 AI 的协作(雇佣/合作)。 证据:Coral Protocol(把 agent 租进共享 threaded session, 按用量分账);Payman(agent 发任务单、交付后双层验证、 即时付款——所见最完整的"雇佣"模板);Salesforce AgentExchange(可组合的 skills/actions/topics)。 第三类——买商品(数字或实物代购)。 证据:Stripe ACP 驱动 ChatGPT 内 Instant Checkout(Etsy + 约 100 万 Shopify 商户);Skyfire + Visa 演示(agent 比价后 在 Bose.com 下单买耳机);Google AP2(Intent/Cart/Payment 三级签名授权购买)。 二、唯一在跑的 agent-to-agent 市场:Olas Mech Olas Mech Marketplace(2025-02-27 上线,Gnosis Chain): agent 雇佣另一个 agent(Mech)跑任务,全程无需人类。 规模(第三方链上分析,2026-06): - 合约累计约 2,103,560 次请求;100 个注册 Mech - 总流水仅约 $10.4 万;单次约 $0.05(中位数更低) 解读:agent-to-agent 市场真实存在且在跑,但当前是微任务 规模、美元流水很小。"靠纯 agent 微任务养活平台"尚未被验证。 三、需求侧的信任墙 消费者还不让 AI 替自己花钱: - Exploding Topics(2026):消费者愿意授权 AI 自主花费的 金额众数是 $0;31% 完全不允许任何自主花费。 - ACI / YouGov(2,000+ 英国成年人,2026-06):仅 19% 信任 AI 按规则做日常购买;60% 表示一次出错就永久停用; 仅 7% 允许 AI 无需批准直接购买。 业内共识引述:"帮我找、帮我比价、打包好给我批——我来按 按钮。"(Fintech Takes) 四、有笔数没价值:x402 诚实检验 - Coinbase 称累计约 1.65 亿笔 / 约 $5,000 万(2026-04)。 - x402 目录独立审计(2026-08):真实独立服务仅 508 个 (非宣称的 14,535 个资源);30 天真实分布式交易量仅约 $20,700;均笔约 $0.07。 - TRM Labs(2026-09):$52.7M 总交易量中,能确认与 AI agent 相关的仅 0.6%–7.5%。 结论:真实的 agent 付费交易存在,但呈"笔数大、金额小、 刷量多、生产级稀缺"特征;"agent 间已形成规模化付费市场" ——证据不足。 五、一句话结论 "人类买单、agent 跑腿。"agent 对外部能力的需求真实但单薄: 主流路径是开发者预置 API key 与订阅。自主花钱在需求侧 (授权意愿众数为 $0)、供给侧(微任务美元流水)、监管侧 (KYC/责任真空)三面均缺乏支撑证据。 战略含义:先做人类买方的高价值采购代办(数据/API/算力), 而不是直接跳进微任务市场。需求真实,但现实的冷启动是人类。 ================================================================ END OF DOCUMENT ================================================================